政治・社会, 文明文化の話, 時事ネタ



原典は以下のサイトにある “A Question of Timing”(著者Jeff Thomas)です。


For millennia, the playbook has been the same. Countries that had been wonderful to live in, began to deteriorate from within, and the great majority of residents had failed to read the tea leaves – the warning signs that, in the future, conditions were not going to get better; they were going to get worse.



なぜ国民は来たるべき危機を見過ごす(fail to read the tea leaves)のでしょうか?

筆者はアレキサンダー・フレーザー・タイトラー(Alexander Fraser Tytler)の一文を引用します。文章全体の要所に当たる文章だと思います。


A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.



He further noted that the latter stages of any such decline are marked, first, by complacency, then by apathy. The final stage is invariably one of bondage.


In some cases of collapse, the country is taken over by an outside force, but invariably, as stated above, the rot always starts from within. It’s simply human nature for the majority of any population, when passing through challenging times, to fall prey to promises that, somehow, a change in the form of government can and will result in the elimination of problematic conditions.


But how do those who make such claims sell their ideas? Do they suggest that everyone should work harder and practice a greater level of abnegation?


Well, no. Although such people may exist and may even become outspoken, they are, historically, never the individuals whom the majority of the population follow. Invariably, the majority (having become complacent and pathetic), choose those who promise to take from one group and share the spoils amongst those who are less productive.


As illogical as this promise is, most people, even if they doubt the reality of the claim, tend to think, “Well, it couldn’t be any worse. I might get something, so let’s give it a try.”




もし民主主義が放漫財政から独裁へ至ることで崩壊するなら、バブル後の日本も、リーマンショック後(あるいはポストコロナ)のアメリカも独裁への道を歩んでいるように見えます。打ち出の小槌よろしく繰り出されている金融緩和や財政出動は本質的にすべてbenefits from the public treasury(国庫からの給付)だからです。



In hindsight, the warning signs have always been there: an increasingly autocratic government, increasingly volatile and irrational political struggles, mounting debt, increased taxation, a declining economy and the removal of basic freedoms “for the greater good.”